China, nuclear war and charity – economic policy

The war in Ukraine provokes many more or less enlightened comments, especially with regard to China. In fact, Beijing has recently claimed that Moscow is its most strategic partner.

Let us dare to write it, it is for the form. In practice, China is playing in line and doing nothing to disrupt the Americans. Firstly because Chinese leaders have a very long-term view : they want to be the economic and political leaders of the planet, but in 2049. On this date, we will celebrate the centenary of the establishment of the People’s Republic of China.

But until then, China will do nothing to weaken it. Of course, for propaganda reasons, she wants to prevent Russia from collapsing under Western economic sanctions. Not out of Christian charity, but because a Russian collapse would encourage Western countries to take similar, if not stronger, actions against China. And so, since China supports Russia, at least in words, it does not want Russia to go bankrupt and be forced to support Russia financially because of its “friendship”. At least that’s what Steve Tsang, a professor at the SOAS China Institute in London, thinks.

Let’s not forget that either China first looks at its own interests in this sad story, she does not want US President Joe Biden to add her to the list of rare countries, while her economy is in the midst of a downturn and the barrel of oil is at the top. In other words, there is no question of China openly violating US and European economic sanctions against Russia. China has a long-term vision, and it knows it must secure its access to Western technologies and especially to Western markets. It is clear, as my colleagues from L’EXPRESS write, that Beijing does not want its agenda dictated by “friend” Putin, because for the Chinese, the time for direct confrontation with the Americans has not yet come.

But some readers might think that Putin could damn well activate the nuclear weapon, which he often threatens to do. But precisely on this topic, my colleagues from L’EXPRESS had the very good idea of ​​interviewing George Friedman, an American expert in geopolitics who is very much associated with American military circles. What is he really saying? First, that China is already discussing with the United States without telling the Russians that. In fact, the Chinese have realized that Russia is incredibly overrated militarily, as it is not even able to invade Ukraine despite the disproportionate forces involved. Moreover, the fall of the Russians in Ukraine demonstrates the validity of this proverb known by the military: “amateurs talk about strategy and professionals talk about logistics“.

The second lesson is that a nuclear conflict will not take place, according to George Friedman, because “it is the only type of war in which the one who uses this weapon is sure to lose his own life and kill all his relatives, his children, “his grandchildren, all the people he loves. In all other forms of war, those who start it are protecting their families, but that’s impossible because any Russian nuclear initiative would trigger an American reaction.” And George Friedman adds that even if this idea of ​​nuclear war were to cross Putin’s mind, his generals would stop him and tell him “you’re telling us to kill our own children and grandchildren!”

And so, according to this internationally respected military specialist: “in a strange way, it is therefore the love of one’s neighbor that prevents nuclear war”.

Let us dare to write it, it is for the form. In practice, China is playing in line and doing nothing to disrupt the Americans. First, because the Chinese leaders have a very long-term vision: they want to be the economic and political leaders of the planet, but in 2049. On that date, we will celebrate the centenary of the establishment of the People’s Republic of China. But until then, China will do nothing to weaken it. Of course, for propaganda reasons, she wants to prevent Russia from collapsing under Western economic sanctions. Not out of Christian charity, but because a Russian collapse would encourage Western countries to take similar, if not stronger, actions against China. And so, since China supports Russia, at least in words, it does not want Russia to go bankrupt and be forced to support Russia financially because of its “friendship”. At least that’s what Steve Tsang, a professor at the SOAS China Institute in London, thinks. Let us also not forget that China is first looking at its interests in this sad story, it does not want US President Joe Biden to add it to the list of rare countries while its economy is in full swing. and that the barrel of oil is on top. In other words, there is no question of China openly violating US and European economic sanctions against Russia. China has a long-term vision, and it knows it must secure its access to Western technologies and especially to Western markets. It is clear, as my colleagues from L’EXPRESS write, that Beijing does not want to have its agenda dictated by “friend” Putin, because for the Chinese, the time for direct confrontation with the Americans is not yet in. “But some readers could say to themselves even that damn, Putin could activate the nuclear weapon, which he often threatens to do.Nevertheless, my colleagues from L’EXPRESS on this very subject had the very good idea of ​​interviewing George Friedman, an American expert in geopolitics very much associated with American military circles What does he say in substance? First, that China is already discussing with the United States without telling the Russians, in fact, the Chinese understood that Russia was incredibly overrated at the military level because it is not even able to invade Ukraine despite of the mismatch between the forces present.this proverb known by the military: “amateurs talk about strategy, and the professionals talk about logistics.” The second lesson is that a nuclear conflict is not l take place, according to George Friedman, because “it is the only type of war in which anyone who uses this weapon is sure to lose his own. life and to kill all his relatives, his children, his grandchildren, all the people he loves. In all other types of wars, those who start it protect their families, but here it is impossible because any Russian nuclear initiative would lead to an American response. “And George Friedman adds that even if this idea of ​​war were to cross Putin’s mind, his generals stop him and say “you tell us we have to kill our own children and grandchildren!” And then according to this globally respected military expert: “strangely enough, it is therefore the love of one’s neighbor that prevents nuclear war”.

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