Nuclear war and love for its neighbor – Trends-Tendances sur PC

The war in Ukraine arouses a lot of more or less enlightened comments, especially about China. In fact, Beijing has recently claimed that Moscow is its most strategic partner. Let us dare to write it: it is for the form. But in practice, China is playing in line and doing nothing that could upset the Americans. First, because the Chinese leaders have a very long-term vision: they want to be the economic and political leaders of the planet … in 2049. On that date, we will celebrate the centenary of the establishment of the People’s Republic of China. Until then, China will not do anything to weaken it!

The war in Ukraine arouses a lot of more or less enlightened comments, especially about China. In fact, Beijing has recently claimed that Moscow is its most strategic partner. Let us dare to write it: it is for the form. But in practice, China is playing in line and doing nothing that could upset the Americans. First, because the Chinese leaders have a very long-term vision: they want to be the economic and political leaders of the planet … in 2049. On that date, we will celebrate the centenary of the establishment of the People’s Republic of China. Until then, China will not do anything to weaken it! Of course, for propaganda reasons, she wants to prevent Russia from collapsing under Western economic sanctions. Not out of charity, but because a Russian collapse would encourage Western countries to take similar, if not stronger, measures against China. And so, since China supports Russia, at least in words, it does not want Russia to go bankrupt and be forced to support Russia financially because of its “friendship”. At least that’s what Steve Tsang, a professor at the SOAS China Institute in London, thinks. Let us also not forget that in this sad history, China first looks at its interests. She does not want US President Joe Biden to add her to the list of rare countries when her economy is in the middle of a downturn and the barrel of oil is at its peak. In other words, there is no question of China openly violating US and European economic sanctions against Russia. China has a long-term vision, and it knows it must secure its access to Western technologies and especially to Western markets. It is clear, as my colleagues from L’Express write, “Beijing does not want to have its agenda dictated by ‘friend’ Putin, because for the Chinese, the time for direct confrontation with the Americans has not yet come”. But some readers might think that heck, Putin could activate the nuclear weapon, which he often threatens to do. But precisely on this topic, my colleagues from L’Express had the very good idea of ​​interviewing George Friedman, an American expert in geopolitics who is very much associated with American military circles. What is he really saying? First, that China is already discussing with the United States without telling the Russians that. In fact, the Chinese have understood that Russia is incredibly overrated militarily because it is not even capable of invading Ukraine despite the mismatch between the forces involved. And then the second lesson is that a nuclear conflict will not take place, according to George Friedman, because, he says, “it’s the only type of war where the one who uses this weapon is sure to lose his own life and that get all his relatives, his children, his grandchildren, all the people he loves killed, in all other types of war, those who start it save their families, but there it is impossible, because any Russian nuclear initiative would lead to an American response “. And George Friedman adds that even if this idea of ​​nuclear war were to cross Putin’s mind, his generals would stop him and tell him “you’re telling us to kill our own children and grandchildren!”. And according to this world-respected military specialist, “it is in a strange way the love of one’s neighbor that prevents nuclear war”.

Leave a Comment